The departure of Brigadier General Manaf Tlass from Syria continues to make headlines around the world. But amidst the fanfare, the question of whether this latest development has lasting significance is not at all clear. There are several points to consider:
First, gaining the "defection" of important members of the Sunni community and senior commanders of the Syrian Army has been a central goal of the external opposition and their foreign backers since the onset of protests in 2011. This is the Assad-must-go-no-matter-what crowd, and splitting key pro-regime communities (major cities, secular Sunnis, business elite, government officials, armed forces and minority groups) has been their only strategy to provoke regime change, outside of foreign military assistance.
Second, the regime-changers have gone to great lengths to actively promote "cracks" in these communities. This includes widespread misinformation campaigns as outlined by Stratfor last December, and through carefully calibrated unconventional warfare tactics as explained in this article. A slew of current and former regime officials/confidantes have been approached by external parties this past year to - if necessary - manufacture these fissures. One former senior government official who is known to be dissatisfied with Assad's performance has told me personally that he was offered a specific large sum of money by the US Congress - brokered by a third nation - just to show up at a critical "Friends of Syria" opposition meeting. Gaining key defections from Syria has become that important.
Third, Brigadier General Tlass is, frankly, not that important from either a military or political perspective.
Since the news of his departure broke a few days ago, Tlass has stayed quiet. It is unlikely that he has "defected" - that would suggest he is joining the opposition, and it is doubtful that any but the most opportunistic of them would embrace a figure so closely associated with the Assad history in Syria.
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